Forex Today: Chinese GDP Growth Returns – 16 July 2020

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on July 16, 2020

Markets retracing back into risk-off

  • Stocks and risky assets have sold off in recent hours. The U.S. Dollar is broadly higher, while Silver again closed yesterday at a 10-month high and is likely to see higher prices still over the coming days.
  • WTI Crude Oil is still trading above $40 per barrel.
  • Over the short-term, riskier currencies such as the British Pound are weaker while safe havens such as the U.S. Dollar are stronger. However, the U.S. Dollar is in a confirmed long-term downwards trend after making a technical “death cross” last week.
  • Chinese GDP data came in positive at 3.2%, exceeding expectations, while Australian unemployment data was mixed. In New Zealand, inflation is running at a negative 0.5%.
  • Today will see two important economic data releases: the European Central Bank’s monthly policy and rates, as well as U.S. retail sales data.
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  • Yesterday saw the second-highest daily total new coronavirus confirmed cases globally yet at 234,337. California has re-imposed closures as new coronavirus cases soared to over 8,000 daily. In Melbourne, Australia; and in Tokyo, Japan, there are hundreds of new cases daily emerging. Other areas that initially appeared to successfully suppress the coronavirus have re-imposed closure restrictions.
  • Coronavirus deaths in Latin America and the Caribbean are 48% of the global daily total, well exceeding those in both the U.S.A. (14%) and Europe (approx. 9%) which shows that the epicenter of the pandemic is well established in Latin America. Deaths in the U.S.A. have been rising for two weeks, but are showing signs of declining again.
  • Total confirmed new coronavirus cases stand at over 13.3 million with an average case fatality rate of 4.32%.
  • The number of new coronavirus cases is rising very strongly in India, which has now overtaken Russia to stand at third place globally with over 936,000 total confirmed cases. South Africa now has more confirmed cases than the United Kingdom.
  • Brazil continues to see more daily deaths from coronavirus than any other country in the world.
  • The rate of new coronavirus infections appears to be now increasing most quickly in the United States, Albania, Bolivia, Colombia, Croatia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, India, Iraq, Israel, Japan, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Luxembourg, Montenegro, Nigeria, North Macedonia, Oman, Panama, Paraguay, Poland, Romania, Serbia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Uzbekistan, and Venezuela.

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